July 16, 2019

Considering the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts and estimated the probability of the index outperforming its previous measures. We estimate the likelihood of the industrial production index expansion outperforming its previous quarter to be 48.42%. Hence, we expect little or no change in the rate of change in the Industrial Production Index, a continued decline in the Index. The estimated probabilities then rise to 72.26% by the first quarter of 2020, pointing to a reversal of the recent decline in the rate of change of the Industrial Production Index. The likelihood of the Industrial Production Index outperforming the trailing 4 quarter expansion rate is estimated to be 35.49% during the third quarter 0f 2019, rising to 71.08% during the first quarter of 2020. The data points to a surge in the Industrial Production Index and a continued and steady state rate of expansion during 2020

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