January 23, 2012

Special interest groups have different incentives. One group cares about the misery index, the other about the stock market. Simply put, a rising stock market and a declining misery index increase the chances of re-election of President Obama. However, if the indicators diverge, so will the interests of the two groups. Hence focusing on these two indicators may give us a clue as to which groups will likely support the president’s re-election efforts.

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