January 15, 2002

Each time we review the Wall Street Journals semiannual survey of economists' forecasts, we take the average of the individual forecasts as a measure the consensus forecast. From this extraction, we then determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus. This way we can better understand each forecast separately and value it accordingly (perhaps "value" is an inappropriate word-who are we to value another economists forecast, particularly among this group-lets say we will be able to "assess" their forecasts accordingly). (full article attached)

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