July 22, 2013

In light of the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts and estimated the probability of the Industrial Production Index outperforming its previous measures. We estimate the odds of the expected third quarter change in the index exceeding the previous quarter change in the index to be approximately 63.83%. We then look for the probability to fall to near the 50% range over the fourth quarter and to decline to slightly below 50% during the first quarter of 2014.

You must have an active account to view these reports. You may register for a trial here

Download Complete Report in PDF Format

Download Complete Report in Word Format