March 24, 2015

Six years have lapsed since the inauguration of President Obama and the passage of time and the evidence accumulated may allow us to apportion the recovery into how much is due to the initial conditions inherited by the administration, how much is due to the economy self-equilibrating, and how much is due to the policies of the administration and the Federal Reserve. The apportionment can then be used to forecast the likely path of the economy and the markets during the remaining two years of the Obama administration.

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