January 19, 2016

The results show that if the status quo remains as it is, Mr. Trump will easily win the nomination if he garners 30% of the votes in each of the states. If the current field stays and Mr. Trump maintains his status as the front runner and simultaneously increases his market share above 30% (say to the 35% range), he will handily win the Republican nomination. However, as the number of candidates’ declines and voters coalesce among the survivors, then Mr. Trump’s chances begin to decline.

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