April 16, 2019

The Industrial Production Index declined at a 0.3% annual rate during the first quarter of 2019. At 110.2% of its 2012 average, the Industrial Production Index was 2.8% higher in March than it was a year earlier. The question is whether we should be concerned about the recent decline in the Industrial Production index? Does it portend an economic slowdown, or a sustained expansion albeit at a slower pace? The capacity utilization declined 0.2 percentage point to 78.8%. A rate that is 1 percentage point below its long run (1972-2018) average. The figure suggests that there is ample room for a non-inflationary sustained expansion.

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