October 20, 2019

We estimate the likelihood of the industrial production index expansion outperforming its previous quarter to be 30.70% and then to rise to 76.73% during the first quarter of 2020 and to steadily decline to 49.05% by the end of 2020. These estimates are consistent with an industrial production bottoming during the fourth quarter and then begin a steady increase during 2020. The likelihood of the Industrial Production Index outperforming the trailing 4 quarter expansion reaffirms our previous conclusion. The likelihood of the fourth quarter exceeding its trailing 4 quarterly expansion is estimated to be 15.96%, rising to 82.72% during the first quarter of 2020 and declining to 54.83 by the end of 2020. The data points to a surge in the Industrial Production Index and a continued and steady state rate of expansion in the 2% to 2.5% during 2020.

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