January 17, 2020

Considering the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts and estimated the probability of the index outperforming its previous measures. We estimate the likelihood of the industrial production index expansion outperforming its previous quarter to be 70.84% and then decline to the near 50% range during the remainder of the year and to rise to 62.67% during the first quarter of 2021. These estimates are consistent with an industrial production surging during the first quarter and the rate of expansion leveling during the remainder of the year.

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