May 12, 2020

TV analysts are quite fond of reporting polling data to assess the state of affairs in political races. In general, the re on exception, Brit Hume who quite frequently reports on the betting odds for different political outcomes. The betting markets provide a simple and unbiased estimate of the likelihood of the different election outcomes. Bettors set aside their political views when they bet, their desire is to make money. As such their purchase and sale of contracts provide us with an unbiased estimate of the likelihood of the different outcomes. The data points to a slight improvement in the Democratic party in political fortunes.

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