July 19, 2020

Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II. At 97.5 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 10.8 percent lower in June than it was a year earlier. Considering the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts We expect the industrial production to have bottomed during the second quarter, posting a trailing four quarters 15% decline and to erase these loses by the middle of 2021.

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