January 10, 2001

Each time we review the Wall Street Journals semiannual survey of economists forecasts, we ask ourselves if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast. From this extraction, we could then determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus. If we could accomplish this, we could then better understand each forecast separately and value accordingly (perhaps "value" is an inappropriate word - who are we to value another economists forecast, particularly among this group - lets say we will be able to "assess" their forecasts accordingly).

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