January 15, 2021

Total industrial production rose 1.6% in December after increasing 0.5% in November and 1% in October. May. For the fourth quarter the industrial production rose at an 8.4% annual rate. At 105.7% of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production. Even so, it remained 3.6% percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Considering the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts and estimated the probability of the index outperforming its previous measures. We estimate the likelihood of the industrial production index expansion outperforming its previous quarter to be 17.3%, and then to rise to 53.9%. the data points to a deceleration and then leveling of the Industrial Production Index. These estimates are consistent with an economic recovery and the industrial production surging during the first part of the recovery and then settling into a steady expansion during the next 6 quarters. We expect the Industrial production to expand at around a 5% rate during 2021 and then decline to 2.5% by the middle of 2022.

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