July 17, 2022

The data show that Industrial production continues its return to long-term trends. Despite a slowdown in June, total industrial production rose at a 6.1 percent annual rate for the second quarter. The estimated probability of the Industrial Production Index outperforming the trailing four quarters reaffirms our previous conclusion of a deceleration of the economic expansion. The likelihood of the third quarter exceeding its trailing four quarter moving average is estimated to be 26.38%. Then we expected the trailing four quarter moving average to steadily rise to the 50% range by the first quarter of 2023. These estimates are consistent with an economic recovery and the industrial production initially surging and then settling to a steady expansion during the next four quarters. We expect the Industrial production to expand at a 2% to 2.5% rate during the next 12 months.

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