September 18, 2022

The LJE quarterly forecast has a dual purpose. One is to produce a forecast that accurately captures the economic environment we foresee for the coming quarter. The second objective is to dress up the forecast with a parsimonious and coherent description of the foreseen economic environment. Our Interest Rates and overall forecast takes a cue from the futures markets. The combined forecast paints the following picture for the coming 12 months: A declining inflation rate and a slow acceleration of the pace of economic activity with a strong likelihood that the real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend line. Overall, the forecast adds up to single to low double-digit earnings growth pointing to positive stock market returns over the next 12 months.

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