March 27, 2023

The LJE quarterly forecast has a dual purpose. One is to produce a forecast that accurately captures the economic environment we foresee for the coming quarter. The second objective is to dress up the forecast with a parsimonious and coherent description of the foreseen economic environment. Our forecast paints the following picture for the coming 12 months: A declining inflation rate and a leveling of the pace of economic activity with a strong likelihood that the real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend line. The forecast adds up to a negative low single-digit earnings growth adding to a flat to slightly positive stock market returns during 2023.

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