January 28, 2024

The across-the-board double-digit decline in returns during 2022 led many investors and analysts to conclude that during 2022 there was no place to hide. Critics of the Biden administration argued that the economic and stock market downdrafts were a direct result of the policies being implemented. In contrast, the administration’s defenders as well as many other analysts argued that 2022 exhibited the classic signs of a Black Swan. These two alternatives offered vastly different perspectives as to whether the downdraft could have been prevented and what to do to engineer and accelerate the recovery. The difference of opinion led us to investigate the case for and against 2022 being a Black Swan, and whether the events were the result of the economic environment created by the policies being pursued at the time.

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