February 11, 2024

Given the likelihood of their nomination, this promises to be one of the longest campaigns in history. If the likelihoods are realized, the November 2024 Presidential election will mark a first in several aspects. It will feature the two oldest candidates opting for the US presidency. Both candidates have already served one term as President of the United States. This is an important detail. The president that we elect in November will only have one term left to serve. This in turn leads to two interesting possible scenarios: First, without the need to seek reelection there will be no need to cater to donors, legislators, and other special interest groups. The president that we elect will be less inclined to compromise, will feel less constrained and be more likely to freely pursue their policy preferences. The fact that the President will only have one term to govern also creates a possible downside. The President becomes a lame duck from day one of his presidency. Hence it is possible that the legislators within the party will not fear the wrath of the president as much and as a result will pursue their own agenda even if it conflicts with that of the president. Simply put, the President could lose control or influence over the legislative branches. If that is the case the House and Senate may impose some constraints or guardrails to the president’s impetus to pursue their policy preferences at any costs. This becomes even more likely if the opposition takes control of one or both legislative chambers. Looking ahead, using data from the betting markets we consider the likelihood. We also explore some of the possible implications for the different election outcome scenarios.

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