March 07, 2024

The betting market points to an improvement in the likelihood that the Republicans will take the White House and the US Senate. The same market points to an improvement in the odds that the Democrats will take the House. Jointly these odds point to a decreasing likelihood of a trifecta by either party. According to our estimates, the likelihood of a trifecta are almost equally split among the two parties, and increasing odds of a divided government with an estimated likelihood of 86.62%. While the data slightly favors a Republican in the executive branch, the magnitude of the likelihood is almost an even split.

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