April 08, 2024

The Presidential odds are fairly even; however the marginal changes favor the Democratic candidate. During the month of March, the likelihood of the Democratic candidate winning the White House rose to above 50% while that of his Republican counterpart fell below 50%. The betting market points to a high likelihood that the Republicans will take the Senate. In fact, the likelihood has held steadily above the 80% range. The odds favor the democrats taking over the House of Representatives. However, a comparison of the March numbers to the February numbers points to a big improvement in the odds favoring the Republicans. Jointly these odds point to an increasing likelihood of a Republican trifecta and a decline in the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta. In turn these numbers point to a decline in the likelihood of a divided government.

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