July 02, 2024

Up to the end of June the race for the White House was an even one. However, since the debate , former President Trump has taken a clear lead in the race for the White House. Whether the debate bump has a lasting impact on the presidential race remains to be seen. Although at 63.74% the odds of a divided government are quite high, the data reported in Table 2 shows that betting markets point to a decline in improvement in the likelihood of a divided government. A result that points to an increased polarization of the electorate and an increase in the likelihood of a trifecta. However, the odd of a Republican trifecta remains twice as likely as that of a Democratic trifecta. While the betting market points to slight increase in the odds that the Democrats will take the House or the Senate. The betting odds on the presidential outcome fail to identify any fallout from the outcome of the Trump New York trial. In contrast, the data seems to point to a significant fallout in the aftermath of the presidential debate.

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