July 21, 2024

The data presented here suggests that adding the control of the legislative branches and or the changes in the incentive structure adds additional information to the simple screen of using solely the political affiliation of the White House to characterize the economic environment. Our analysis presents a more nuanced political split that considers who controls the legislative branch produces results that are more aligned with the voters’ preferences registered during the election results of the last seven decades. In short, these results suggest that focusing solely on the party affiliation of the White House occupant could lead to the wrong conclusion. A trifecta by either party makes it much easier for the occupant of the White House to implement its economic agenda than a divided government would. The trifecta represents the purest representation of the party in power overall agenda. The results reported show that during Democratic trifectas the economy underperformed across all indicators. In contrast during Republican trifectas the real S&P and real GDP outperformed while the inflation rate posted a below average performance. Furthermore , when it comes to a divided government, the opposition control of the House and senate represents the best change for the opposition to overturn the White House policies , temper them and if all else fails to reject them resulting in a legislative gridlock. Again, the results reported suggest that the Republicans tempering the Democratic White House is a good thing while the Democrats tempering a Republican White House is not a good thing. That a Democratic trifecta is not a good thing while a Republican trifecta is a good thing.

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