June 20, 2000

Over the years, weve developed a twopronged framework to rank and forecast the expected relative performance of the worlds financial markets. One part of our analysis focuses on the economic policy changes taking places in the various countries. We then focus on how these policy changes may affect the pace of the individual countries economic activity and inflation rate. In some cases, the relative performance across countries is easily determined. For example, if we forecast one country to expand while another is forecast to contract, the relative performance is easily determined. The complication arises when the qualitative forecast for two countries goes in the same direction. When that happens we need a mechanism to determine the relative ranking. The mechanism we use is the real exchange rates of the countries.

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