October 06, 2024

Since we are less than a month away from the presidential election, this will be our last monthly missive on our summary of the betting markets election outcome expectations. It seems that during this election cycle the October surprise came in July. President Biden left the race, Vice President Harris was elevated to the head of the ticket, and the attempt on Former President Trump’s life were major events that created a great deal of political turmoil and rendered obsolete the previous betting odds. Then there is the resetting of the race following the successful Republican and Democratic conventions that energized both sides of the aisle and according to the betting odds the race for the White House is a toss-up. But the markets are impacted by more than who controls the White House. Who controls the House and Senate also matters. We review the likelihood of the possible combinations of the different political party controls of the executive and legislative branches. We then use the historical performance of these combinations to make inferences as to the likely economic performance under each of these combinations.

You must have an active account to view these reports. You may register for a trial here

Download Complete Report in PDF Format

Download Complete Report in Word Format