January 19, 2025

The November 2024 election marks the return of Donald Trump as the forty-seventh president. During his campaign for the White House, candidate Trump proposed different economic and political priorities than those pursued by the Biden administration. The transfer of power is likely to coincide with an economic turning point as the incoming administration abandons Bidenomics in pursuit of the MAGA agenda. Investors must evaluate whether the policy changes proposed during the campaign will be implemented and if so, whether they will result in an improvement or deterioration of the economy’s overall performance? The answer to these questions overlaid on the current economic conditions yield a forecast for the expected economic performance during President Trump’s second term. Needless to say, the full potential or upside depends on the implementation of each of the pro-growth components that we have outlined. An unlikely event. Similarly, the worst-case scenario would be one where all of the policies adopted go against the pro-growth agenda, another unlikely event. Therefore, it seems very unlikely that the economic conditions will be as good as the most optimistic scenario suggests, nor will they be as bad as the most bearish scenario suggests.

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