May 29, 2025

Whether the US and the world will be better off as a result of the Liberation Day policy depends on the path the administration takes as it implements the policy. Will it focus on balancing trade or balancing trade barriers? These are two different approaches. The former will be quite bearish while the latter approach will be quite bullish. We need to keep in mind that the America First policy favors the US wellbeing even if it is at the expense of the Rest of the World wellbeing. Whether the US benefits the most will depend on the ability of the baseline tariff to redistribute income to the US. Tracking the foreign exchange of the dollar , and the markets will give us a continuous information as to which path the Liberation Day followed and whether it is working as President Trump promised.

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