Report Detail Summary

Migration and Welfare

November 18, 2025

Our view on immigration is that the choice should have a double coincidence of want. That the immigrants want to come to the US , which they do by definition, and that we want to have them come. An open border , as implemented by the Biden administration , attracted what we may define as the welfare migrants as opposed to the working migrants. The Trump administration policy has effectively closed the border and also tightened the immigration policies. While it significantly reduced the inflow of welfare migrants, a desirable outcome, it also reduced the inflow of workers, an undesirable outcome. While it sounds harsh , we need to be reminded of what Milton Friedman said, that free immigration is incompatible with a welfare state, which we are. The ideal policy is one that stops the welfare migrants while welcoming the working migrant. The latter will contribute to society and should be welcomed while the former will drain the government resources and overwhelm the provision of public services. The ideal immigration policy should restrict the inflow of the welfare migrant.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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