January 17, 2026

It is difficult to box or put in a traditional economic viewpoint. It has elements of Keynesianism , Supply-Side and Dirigism. That is why many forecasters were wrong about their 2025 economic outlook. Most focused on one component and ignored the other elements of Trumpnomics. Going forward, it appears that some of the forecasters have not learned and as a result have not corrected their previous forecast mistakes. Some are overly optimistic while others are overly pessimistic depending on the policy component that they stress. To us the bottom line is that President Trump is taking many policies initiative simultaneously , in our view many favor the economy while a few do not. Yet we are quite bullish , the rationale for our bullishness is that President Trum likes to ride the winners and quickly abandons the losers. Hence if a policy is notworking out , he will be quick to abandon or modify. In terms of the latter think of the tariff policy , he started at a high tariff rate and when the markets did not respond favorably, he backed off. The rates are now much lower than what he initially proposed. actions that favor the economy and many that do not. The question is what the balance of the Trump policies is . If he is too underweight or weaken the policies that are not working on, the successful police will gain relative importance and the likelihood of success will increase.

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