September 29, 1999

At La Jolla Economics, we apply in an ongoing process, the Selector Methodology to our value and growth proxies -- the BARRA value and growth indices -- to estimate the likelihood of the value stocks in the S&P 1500 outperforming the growth stocks in the S&P 1500, and vice versa. Looking forward to the next quarter, our methodology estimates the probability of value outperforming growth at 35.5%. Notice during the next three quarters, the probability of value stocks outperforming increases. However the gains are not enough to overtake the growth stocks. The investment implication of the probability estimates is fairly clear: increase portfolio exposure to the growth stocks.

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