February 22, 1999

The origins of the Internet revolution can be traced to the late 1950's when the computer industry got a big boost from the innovation of integrated circuits. We can draw interesting parallels between that period and the current Internet boom that help us identify potential winners as the revolution plays out. The IBM-360, introduced in 1964, stood head and shoulders above its competitors (few though they were). It was one the first upwardly competitive machines developed, meaning that programs written for the low end were also run by high-end models. But the high purchase and operating cost precluded the popularization of the product. However, the market developed a solution to the high cost: time-sharing services. Time-sharing allowed users to draw on the power of a main frame while avoiding the cost of purchasing and maintaining their own system.

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