December 18, 1998

Even a cursory analysis of year-to-date economic and financial performance suggests that when the books are closed on 1998, well conclude it was a very good year. The U.S. inflation rate will be close to a "statistical" zero, the economy will have grown at better than 3%, the long-bond yield will be around 5%, and the S&P500 will produce double digit gains. To be sure, not everything was rosy: Last summer the markets experienced a serious downdraft and some sectors of the economy (most notably manufacturing) have experienced difficulties.

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