June 26, 1998

The most recent data indicate that during the second quarter, the economic environment favored growth over value stocks, and the estimated probability of growth outperforming value was 62%. This estimate, we felt, might be slightly biased due to measurement errors, so we also looked at the probability of value outperforming growth. That estimate netted a probability of 43.2%. Since both estimates concurred, our analysis predicted growth stocks would outperform during the second quarter of 1998.

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