La Jolla Economics

Report Detail Summary

The Country Selector

July 10, 2000

We produce our quarterly forecasts by applying the Country Selector model to stock market data. Looking at the third quarter; we estimate that Australia has a 48.11% probability of outperforming the U.S. (Table 1). Notice that Canada has probability estimates above the 50% mark; which is consistent with our analysis of the Canadian tax rate reductions that have taken place in recent years. The probability estimate for the EMU seem to suggest that the German tax reform will come to pass and become effective in January 2001. For the third quarter; as a group; the rest of the world has a 38.06% estimated probability of outperforming the U.S.

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