Report Detail Summary

The Country Selector

June 12, 1998

The European monetary union is proceeding as we expected. Interest-rate convergence has produced the expected decline in long-term rates in Spain; Italy and Portugal. Stock market performance in these countries has been nothing short of spectacular. Since the beginning of the year; Spain has gained 43%; Italy 42% while Portugal has increased a mere 39%. Even Euroland wannabe Greece has gained 52%. Convergence is a wonderful thing. While the gains from the currency union may be fully realized in the markets by year's end; we believe the full unification process has a long way to go. As Europe unifies its regulations to the lowest common denominator; the European bourses will rise. We see evidence this is already taking place nearly every day. The European markets are responding to market forces and are finding; and using; market solutions to solve problems. A recent example is new legislation permitting the hiring of temporary workers; which provides a simple way around labor rigidities and the inability of many companies to fire workers. European companies are also increasingly adopting U.S. reporting standards and profit-driven management styles that focus on shareholders issues.



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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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