December 21, 2001

Our forecast paints a very rosy scenario for the economy in the coming months. A real GDP growth in the neighborhood of 4% for 2002 accompanied by a less than 2% inflation rate and a surge in real corporate earnings is as good as it gets. How and why did our model produce such an optimistic forecast? The key ingredient behind the forecast is the market’s expected increase in short term interest rates during the next 24 months.

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