December 15, 2000

At the beginning of the quarter we argued that the rise in oil prices would not be inflationary as long as the U. S. remained on the price rule. The effect of the oil price would be analogous to a tax that would slow down the economy and produce disinflationary pressures in the non-oil sector of the economy. The big issue on our mind was whether Al Gore or George W. Bush would be elected President, needless to say we did not anticipate the closeness of the election.

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