March 10, 2003

The year-to-date disappointing performance of the financial markets makes one wonder whether the downturn is the result of short-term conditions and/or part of a longer-term secular decline. Explanations for the disappointing performance are sometimes focused on individual variables or events, yet as one looks back it becomes apparent that the different variables used to explain the malaise are indirectly or directly related to each other. A better way is to focus on the overall environment and the set of policy responses adopted by the authorities in their attempt to deal with economic environment.

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