Report Detail Summary

The Fourth Quarter Outlook

September 10, 2003

The futures markets paint a rosy picture for the U.S. economy. We see a strong and steady recovery. We expect the trailing four-quarter growth rate to bottom around the 2% range during the second quarter and then begin a steady ascent. We look for the trailing four-quarter growth rate to rise above 3.5% by the end of 2003 and continue its ascent to the 5% range by the end of 2004.

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