October 21, 2003

For the quarterly changes, the probability estimate is steadily increasing to better than 50% by the beginning of the first quarter of 2004. The forecast is consistent with an acceleration of the economic recovery. The estimate that the index will exceed the value of the previous year's index is also shown. Our model estimates a high probability of year-over-year gains for the coming quarters. The two sets of probability estimates point to a steady increase in the index.

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