February 03, 2004

Witness the fourth quarter real GDP preliminary estimate. The 4% annual rate was below the newly revised consensus estimates. By most accounts and on a historical basis, one would argue that a 4% real GDP growth rate is solid and above average economic performance. Then why is there so much talk about the fizzling recovery in the financial press? The below expectations performance has fueled the discussion as to whether the economic recovery is fizzling or moving at a more sustainable pace.

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