February 10, 2004

One way to explore the influence of the economic environment on the political process is to characterize the electorate as consisting of two distinct groups. One we call the investor class and the other, for lack of a better category, we call the defined benefit class. By focusing on the incentives and the impact of the economic environment on the well being of the two hypothetical voters one can gain some insights as to why Howard Dean's message resonated with the Democratic voters and why, even if the economy does recover, President Bush is not going to have an easy victory this November.

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