June 01, 2004

We contend that there is not enough information to make definitive inferences regarding the future path of oil prices. A point being missed by those who are using the Hubert curve to argue that energy prices are going to continue rising in real terms, is that the supply side is at best only half the story of the market clearing process. The demand side is equally important. To illustrate our point, we need to review a bit of history of the U.S. energy markets and present our explanation as to why Hubert failed in the 1980's when energy prices came tumbling down.

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