Report Detail Summary

Politics, Terrorism, Oil and Monetary Policy

September 30, 2004

The U.S. presidential election is upon us. Since people in general vote their pockets, it is worthwhile to recap the current economic conditions: Inflation remains low, real GDP growth will come in at better than 4% for the year and a large portion of the employment losses suffered during the last recession have been recouped. On the negative side, the employment recovery has been slow and the surging energy prices may represent a threat to the recovery. Add to that the recent soft patch in the economy and the roller coaster ride of world equity markets during the year and it is easy to understand why uncertainty remains regarding the economic outlook. U.S. voters are also concerned about security matters. How strongly the voters feel about the likelihood of success against terrorism and their future economic wellbeing will determine the election's outcome. As we draw closer to the election, the candidates are making sharper distinctions about the differences of opinion regarding their domestic and foreign policy views. According to our analysis, the domestic and foreign policy views of the candidates emanate from their perception as to who is best in solving society’s and the world’s problems. One candidate argues that the individual knows best, the other argues that government intervention is required. The choices are fairly clear; all that remains is for people to decide.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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