October 15, 2004

According to the Fed, the U.S. Industrial Production Index increased 0.1% in September after a revised 0.1% decline in August. In their press release the Fed noted that the recent hurricanes in the South East of the U.S. have had a dampening effect on industrial output. However, for the quarter the index has increased 0.69%. Comparing the most recent numbers to those of a year ago, the index has increased 4.64% from September of 2003.In light of the recent data, we have reestimated our model. We look for the Industrial Production Index to continue its growth, but at a slower rate. This is consistent with our overall forecast for the U.S. economy, which sees growth in the 3% to 4% range over the next six months.

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