November 17, 2004

Now we are in a position to produce an explanation as to why we are bullish and yet the dollar keeps declining. We believe that we are feeling the effects of the dollar returning to its long run equilibrium for the cycle that began when the Republicans took over Congress. At first this appears to be a long cycle, but looking at the Reagan years, one can see that it is not unique. The dollar is fast approaching its PPP level and if President Bush carries through with his "ownership society" programs, we believe that we are in for another long cycle similar to the Reagan and Contract with America cycles.

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