December 15, 2004

We continue to see the timing effects of the interest rate expectations as reflected in our forecast. Absent the implementation of the "ownership society" programs, we expect the trailing four-quarter growth rate to decline steadily to a 2.5% to 3% real GDP growth rate by the end of 2005. Our model puts the odds of the economy growing at better than 3% at 35% and for those worried about the downside, we estimate the odds of growing at less than 1% at only 10%.

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