March 20, 2006

Taking the chairman at his word, we believe that the Fed rate hikes are soon to be a thing of the past. If there is any surprise, we believe it to be that the Fed will end the rate hikes sooner than the market expects. Our forecast takes a cue from the futures markets. The market is looking for the fed funds rate to rise to 5% by the end of the next quarter and remain there until the end of the year.

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