March 16, 2007

A slowdown is in the offing; we expect the trailing four-quarter growth rate to decline steadily until the end of 2007. Although we don’t quite see a recession, we expect the economy’s growth rate to range from a low of 0.5% to a high of 3.5% during 2007 with 2% real GDP growth rate being the most likely outcome during 2007. Our interpretation of the futures market suggests that a rate cut is not coming until the second half of 2007 when we expect the economy to be at its weakest point.

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