September 17, 2007

Our model puts the odds of the economy growing at better than 3% by the end of 2008 at 1 in 4. The odds of a 2% or better growth rate are 1 in 2. For those worried about the downside, we estimate the odds of a negative quarter at 1 in 10. Nevertheless, the forecast suggests that the economy will grow at a sub-par rate for several quarters, a performance that will continue well into the 2008 election cycle. Looking towards 2009, our model puts the odd of the economy growing at 3% at 1 in 2. Clearly our model points to an acceleration of economic activity in 2009 just as the tax story suggests.

You must have an active account to view these reports. You may register for a trial here

Download Complete Report in PDF Format

Download Complete Report in Word Format