August 22, 2002

The outlook for the global economy appears to be deteriorating amid falling optimism. The U.S. index of leading indicators fell 0.4%, the third decline in the last four-months. No single development has accounted for the negative mood. Yet nearly everything that has occurred since the beginning of summer is being interpreted in the worst possible light. Some people fear deflation, others fear a double dip. We believe that the combination of deflation and recession are more likely than either one by itself. (full article attached)

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